Economic adjustment pressure, the fourth quarter steel need?

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) today showed that the GROSS domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters of this year reached 8.23131 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.8% and a two-year average growth of 5.2%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the two-year average growth in the first half of this year.In terms of quarters, the year-on-year growth in the third quarter was 4.9 percent, an average growth of 4.9 percent in the two years, 0.6 percentage points lower than that in the second quarter.

Investment continued to slow and consumption improved

The two-year average growth rate of fixed asset investment slowed down.From January to September, China's investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 39.7827 trillion yuan, up 7.3 percent year on year and an average growth rate of 3.8 percent in two years. The average growth rate was 0.2 percentage points lower than that of January to August.By sector, infrastructure investment grew by 1.5% year on year, or an average growth of 0.4% in the two years, up 0.2 percentage points from January to August.Manufacturing investment grew 14.8% yoy and 3.3% on a two-year average, unchanged from January-August.Investment in real estate development rose 8.8 percent, a two-year average of 7.2 percent, down 0.5 percentage points from the January-August period.

Consumption growth has picked up.From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.1857 trillion yuan, up 16.4 percent year on year and up 3.9 percent on average over the past two years.In September, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.4% year on year, 2.3 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth rate of 3.8%.During the month, the retail sales of automobiles and home appliances fell 11.8% and increased 6.6% respectively.

Exports are still growing fast.From January to September, the total value of China's export (in DOLLAR terms) increased by 33.0% year-on-year, including 3.9% month-on-month growth in September and 28.1% year-on-year growth, picking up 2.5 percentage points compared with the previous month.

Industrial production continues to slow.In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 3.1 percent year-on-year, or a two-year average growth of 5.0 percent, down 0.4 percentage points from August.Among them, the added value of the manufacturing industry increased by 2.4% year-on-year in September, down significantly from August. Among the main steel products, the growth rate of industrial robots and metal cutting machine tools slowed down, and the output of automobiles and power generation equipment fell year-on-year.

Economic restructuring and adjustment pressure emerged

In the third quarter of this year, both the year-on-year growth rate and the two-year average growth rate of GDP slowed down from the second quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the growth rate was 0.2 percent, weaker than usual.The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that in the third quarter, risks and challenges at home and abroad have increased, the momentum of global economic recovery has slowed, and some parts of China have been hit by the epidemic and flood, and the pressure of economic restructuring has emerged.

In September, the macro prosperity was down, external demand was strong, domestic demand was weak.Investment in fixed assets in domestic demand declined, with marginal driving force of infrastructure investment not obvious, manufacturing investment basically stable, and real estate investment falling continuously.Consumer demand has improved.At the production end, affected by repeated epidemics in some regions, natural disasters, and tight power supply, industrial production has dropped significantly.

Cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies

Sheng, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics has said that preliminary estimation, the economy's potential growth rate at 5.8% at the present stage in China, in the third quarter year-on-year growth in economy and both the average annual growth rate is low, macro policy remains calm, from promoting common prosperity, cultivating more specialization, new enterprises, promote the development of manufacturing high quality medium and long-term power.

On the monetary front, financial data in September were generally weaker than expected, and financing demand in the real economy was weak.The momentum of economic recovery is weakening, and it is difficult to tighten monetary policy. However, PPI year-on-year growth continues to expand and CPI is under upward pressure, so monetary policy may take inflation expectation management into consideration.Sun Guofeng, head of the central bank's monetary policy department, said on October 15 that the central bank would flexibly use various monetary policy tools, including the medium-term lending facility and open market operations, to provide liquidity of different maturities at a timely and appropriate time to keep liquidity reasonably abundant. He did not mention cutting the reserve requirement ratio.

In terms of finance, the issuance of special bonds has accelerated since August, and relevant departments and local governments have actively promoted major projects, which is conducive to expanding effective investment.For small and medium-sized enterprises that are more affected by upstream price rises, we will study the implementation of phased tax cuts to ease the cost pressure on downstream micro, small and medium-sized enterprises.In addition, to promote the recovery of consumption, or related policies.

There is uncertainty about the economic trend in the fourth quarter

In the third quarter slowdown is endogenous kinetic energy is a weaker economy on one hand, on the one hand, is affected by the epidemic factors such as flood, distributed power brownouts, decided to the fourth quarter growth momentum factor is more, if the outbreak of the influence of external factors such as ease, and at the end of the fiscal, consumption can effectively restore, export entities support, in the fourth quarter the economy may be improved.

At present, there is still pressure on fixed asset investment, continuous negative growth of commercial housing sales, weak performance of new construction, real estate regulation is still in the critical period, real estate investment has great downward pressure.The issuance of special government bonds has accelerated, which is conducive to the growth of infrastructure investment.Cost pressure and weak demand restrict the production and investment of manufacturing enterprises, and the short-term recovery of manufacturing investment may be limited.

Overall stable employment helps support consumption, which may continue to recover if the impact of the epidemic abates, but a rapid improvement is unlikely.

In September, the MANUFACTURING PMI in Europe and the United States all declined, and the margin of external demand weakened. The new export order index of China's manufacturing industry was in the contraction range, and the export has reached the top. Due to the improvement of China's industrial system and strong supporting capacity, the export is expected to maintain rapid growth in the later period, or the growth rate may decline steadily.

Steel demand is expected to be weak

Construction construction end of the season approaches, construction business activities and new orders index fell in September, reflect the construction boom is not strong, the civil engineering construction orders have rebounded, infrastructure investment, or have a rebound, supporting demand for construction steel, but not completely hedge is expected to decline in real estate investment, the influence of construction steel weak situation.

Distributed power brownouts, end demand weakness, factors such as cost pressures will affect the enterprise production expansion and investment, manufacturing production growth has dropped sharply in September, the main steel products output growth narrowed or by increasing drop, manufacturing new orders index downward interval contraction, overall manufacturing steel demand, contraction in the fourth quarter is still possible,Focus on changes in electromechanical exports and the impact of improved consumption on steel used in related industries.