Transaction of iron and steel market "lifeline"

Yesterday a report stirred up thousands of waves, the market upstream and downstream hot discussion at the same time, futures disk also out of the more intense multi - empty earthquake disk trend.After the calculation of the relevant departments, the output of the first quarter of next year compared with the fourth quarter of this year (estimated) production there is a quarter-on-quarter increment, in fact, even if the amount is not large, and now the energy consumption policy has some contradictions, and China's current main task is through policy adjustment, better suppress the output of crude steel, so,Yesterday, Beijing, Tianjin and surrounding areas of the heating season steel peak production plan announced, according to the plan, the first stage: November 15, 2021 to December 31, 2021, to ensure the completion of the region's crude steel output reduction target task.The second stage: January 1, 2022 to March 15, 2022, in order to reduce the heating season to increase the emission of air pollutants as the goal, in principle, the proportion of off-peak production of iron and steel enterprises in the relevant regions is not less than 30% of the crude steel output in the same period of the previous year.

Overall, this autumn and winter production limit for the first time in reference to the crude steel output non-local departments issued, each area of the actual landing of the production limit task will be combined with the reduction of crude steel output and local actual situation to implement the implementation, does not rule out the air quality of cities and regions in this document on the basis of effective strict control.Referring to the actual implementation of local policies in the first three quarters, steel mills will continue to strictly implement the implementation level, steel enterprises need to accelerate the transformation of ultra-low emissions, complete environmental performance rating to reduce the actual production limit proportion.

Immediately to Beijing Olympics held during the Spring Festival next year, can expect, the future will focus on environmental protection control in our country, such as steel companies have been at a higher level of emissions is bound to the air quality as an important reference basis, comprehensively strengthen environmental protection policy of restricting output, supply decrease will be across the main characteristics of the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year.

From the perspective of the fluctuation characteristics of pattern price, supply and demand will be the core factor controlling price changes, supply is tightness and will be the main direction of price fluctuations, and the quality of demand is an important criterion to determine whether each bottom form of price can be confirmed.Current expectations will be the future supply of crude steel will continue to be policy to suppress and lose elasticity, so should be run on corresponding to the price, after National Day, the price of the main regions have appeared different degree rise, whether it's steel mills have a holiday vacation, big rest, reduce market resources, or by restricting output pressure conduction of thrust,All point to the reason for this rise, of course, being less supply.But it seems that the facts and data do not match the characteristics, whether building materials or steel, the price did not appear in a crushing manner, on the contrary, out of an arc downward structural characteristics, if you want to investigate the reason, you can rely on gossip inside the steel production limit loosening, can also be thrown to the demand down.

At present, China's terminal demand is under great pressure with the economic downturn. Although in the short term, the data of infrastructure construction in the fourth quarter showed a certain rise, it is still under pressure in a relatively low environment. Due to the current shortage of capital in place for infrastructure construction and the slow rate of project payment collection, the construction is greatly affected.The number of excavator working hours is also at the lower level of the same period in previous years.

But additional targeted debt issuance of speed and the increase of the local government bond issuance, to a certain extent on the terminal obvious support, but as winter arrival, multiple deadlines will slowdown characteristics, finally the whole market in the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year will be to maintain supply and demand in the dual weak environment, staggered.

Trading is an important expression of supply and demand, no business, no damage, with the business nature is a joy a sorrow, sellers want to sell high, buyers want to buy in the low post, so at the time of supply and demand is weak, how to buy and how to sell, is a very key problem, namely market clinch a deal the "lifeline" in where?

Also known as the so-called transaction reference, now that it is known that the supply side will further pressure production, this will lead to price increases, merchants are happy to see.Demand recovery is very slow, this will let the price fluctuations of present instability, clinch a deal would trigger conflict, then the nature will not be able to become an important reference, spot transactions or man, so basically can according to own actual situation, there is a way, is the futures, the price of futures is formed by the collision of money,Is an important embodiment of market sentiment.Therefore, in the case of weak supply and demand, the ups and downs of futures can more intuitively reflect the future market conditions, ranging from one month to quarterly and annual cycles, to explore the specific response of each stage of the market.So the rise and fall of futures prices has become an important benchmark for many spot people to determine prices and trade products.Because at the end of monetary policy tightening, many people to stock up in advance, so often at the end of the year, traders with the cycle of basic in a month or so, the cargo cycle is likely to cross to the first quarter of next year, so, the main contract of futures 2201 becomes the important market clinch a deal the judgement, benchmarking for merchants and terminal,If there is a futures rose sharply, then the downstream terminal with the mood will be passive pull litre, afraid after get expensive varieties, if a fall in the value of futures downstream 'willingness to take the goods will be because this name is characteristic of low market demand, and on-demand procurement, hope the price will drop again a little bit deep, so according to the futures,The buy up, not down mentality is an important core of the market.

Between the square inch of the futures plate, I already know, if the futures price rises will drive up the spot price, but will also stimulate the desire of the market to clinch a deal, if the futures price falls, the spot price will naturally follow the adjustment, but the transaction will not be because of the price drop and very satisfied with the increment.The money on people's hands is limited, can wait for a price to fall back down again, but always can not reach their bottom of the heart of the price, and slow to see transactions.But limited money can not bear the price rise, like the wind, a sense of panic.Then, period price rises some breach point, perhaps the rise space of some stage became the market clinch a deal "lifeline".If you can find out the fluctuation of price, nature can be one step ahead, seize business opportunities.

So in the main contract of 2201, where is the lifeline, is a key and vague concept, that is, up to where or where to fall, which position can become the trigger of the transaction of the "lifeline".Where the market will go, or where it will fall, will become an important question that will reveal the answer to where the lifeline lies.

According to the current volatility characteristics of the futures, although there are some adjustments at the present stage, the overall price volatility path is still based on the 40-50 degree Angle of the upward movement, that is to say, the current price trend is very close to the reduction path of crude steel, to meet the basic concept of supply decline to boost prices.Activities according to the present stage of the cycle of decision, I will put a long-term deal "lifeline" in 5802, futures rise in this position is a very important node, once formed breakthrough, the price will be like a blowout, surges up, out of a sharp fluctuations rise space, resulting in considerable clinch a deal the dividend.

"Lifeline" of course, this article if you want to achieve, is not easy, because now the price of to form a breakthrough, across the 400 - point gap, then we will need to view in the long settled at present, the so-called "every journey begins with one step", futures now adjusted to what position, can trigger a medium-term clinch a deal the "lifeline", here need to speak a little,Saying is short term, also must have enough rise space, otherwise cannot trigger the purchasing power of downstream terminal.So where we put this "lifeline" is very important.

In the short and medium term, the rush period in the fourth quarter, the issuance of special debt, the further pressure of crude steel supply, and the stock market before the Spring Festival, the probability of a sharp decline in price is still low, but it should be noted that if the price falls below 5267, then the price will experience a sharp decline.The so-called spot sale low will be around 5000-4890.

In addition, we need to note that there is a temporary transaction "lifeline" between the long-term vision of the "lifeline" and the low point of buying and selling, that is, the futures price breaks through 5564, this position is a disk jump point, once the breakthrough, will form a space of about 300 points, to a certain extent, will be a short-term surge in a certain volume.

Clinchs a deal with the spot futures linkage wave form, more and more common in today's market, it is also a symbol of market is matured, mood clinch a deal to become more cautious, but represented by a futures market sentiment, will bring us more meaningful guidance prices, while the unknown future, but when we hesitated and tangle,You may miss an important "lifeline" to clinch a deal.