Gold nine expected + steel overhaul after the city or will rise again?

Changes in raw material market

[iron ore] yesterday, general refers to 2.55 dollars, businesses wait-and-see, cautious operation participants.Now qian 'an 66 grade of mainstream resources, high titanium in 1020-1040, low titanium in 1080 or so, Tangshan powder resources are still in short supply, steel enterprises in the majority of high mining, the overall strong market.Current powder cost performance loss, is expected to have a certain downward space next week, the range of about 10-20 yuan

[Domestic mine] Today continues to run steadily, resource shortage price is firm, individual steel enterprises have increased the purchase operation.Tangshan area now 66 grade of qian 'an mainstream resources, high titanium in 1020-1040, low titanium in 1080 or so, now guoyi steel 66% acid dry base tax included cash to the factory 1370 up 20.Mainstream steel companies said next week or will lower the purchase price.

[scrap] national scrap ups and downs each other.10 up 15 down, the price of steel mills mainly concentrated in Guangdong, Guangxi, Liaoning and other regions, up 20-50;Price drop steel concentrated in Jiangsu, Henan, Anhui area, the mainstream drop is 20-120.Under the influence of environmental protection, power limit and so on, the period snail and finished product pull up obviously;Jiangsu production limit news continues to ferment, there is panic in the market, shipping pace accelerated, the arrival of steel enterprises has increased;Market resources are still in short supply, and the holidays are coming, steel enterprises still have replenishment demand.

Finished material market

[Strip] Tangshan hot strip news: Tangshan narrow strip mainstream up 20, the overall transaction is general, some can clear nissan, some temporarily difficult to volume.Tangshan 285-355 strip market naked price consolidation.

[Profile] Today tangshan profile price stability in the pull up, Angle 5#5410 steady.The pace of terminal procurement is slow, and the downstream merchants mainly collect funds from shipments. However, the cost support continues to rise, and manufacturers are still optimistic.

[hot volume] Today Tangshan open flat 5750 volume price 5730-5740, up 20 compared with yesterday, the business opening firm up, but the terminal market cautious shipment limited, volume continued to fall slightly, market mentality loose intra resource narrow fall, the overall trading shipment is not smooth.

[Medium plate] Today tangshan medium plate mainstream stable, 14-25 mainstream specification 5590, manganese board 5800.In the morning, the price of billet to support the market sentiment, businesses steady price wait-and - see, but weak transaction, the market is expected to be cautious differences, mainly on the operation

[Steel pipe] Tangshan pipe price is rising steadily, welded pipe 5800 (stable), the cost is temporarily supported, but the market trading performance is general, some manufacturers' price mentality weakened, did not follow the adjustment, mainly to warehouse.

【 building materials 】 line screw price steady small rise.Current high line including tax price: Anfeng 5250 up 10;East China Sea tax price big snail 5300 small snail 5400 pan snail 5400 up 20, early price mainstream small rise, period snail shock moved down, market transaction performance is general, wait-and-see sentiment rose.

Price movements this month

Since the beginning of this month, it has been in a rising pattern, in which the total increase of strip steel is 180 yuan by the end of 10th, and the total increase of billet is 200 yuan.Although the current terminal demand has not been fully released, but the recent tightening of production limits and inventory data overall in the reduction trend superimposed macro relatively positive, traders for the future bullish expectations are strong.However, it should be noted that this week's rise is relatively too fast, and the risk of a high fall intensifies. It is recommended to maintain low inventory, and do not take on too much.

Maintenance in Jiangsu

According to the latest news, Jiangsu Jiangyin Xicheng electric furnace factory on September 10, is expected to last until the end of the month, is expected to affect the output of about 100,000 tons;Jiangsu Yang Steel Plant plans to reduce production by 70% from September 10 to September 30, which is expected to affect thread production of about 70,000-80,000 tons.Jiangsu Yancheng Lianxin steel plant in response to the government-government call, in order to strictly control the energy consumption index, will increase production reduction efforts, planned September 10 - October 10, the plant maintenance.

Macro news

China Coal Transportation and Marketing AssociationCoking coal prices rose 】 recently, can't disorderly reqional disturbance caused "butterfly effect", the supply of domestic commodities imported inflation and industrial upgrading transformation of supply and demand imbalance occur at the same time, promote the capital market rapidly rising sharply and the spot market price of coal, coking coal spot prices are higher than long-term contract coal prices more than 100%,For this kind of sturm und drang price chaos, coal upstream and downstream enterprises should keep enough vigilance.

According to the notice issued in the last period, the maximum number of non-futures company members and customers to open positions within the stainless steel SS2110 and SS2111 contracts will be 2000 hands starting from The trading on September 14, 2021 (i.e., the night trading on September 13).

Vale said on Thursday it was cutting its iron ore capacity forecast for 2022 to 370 million tons from a previous target of 400 million tons.The downgrade was reportedly mainly due to problems with the company's high-quality operations in northern Brazil -- namely delays in licensing its SerraNorte complex and additional waste treatment facilities at S11D.While capacity differs from actual production, the slower expansion than previously expected leaves Vale less room to increase iron ore supply in the coming years.

Summary: On the supply side, the reduction of crude steel output and the superimposition of environmental protection "looking back" will have a certain suppression effect on the recovery of output;In terms of demand, entering the traditional consumer season in September, the market for steel demand is expected to pick up.There is a certain supply gap in the later period, and with the release of demand, the mismatch pattern of supply and demand will gradually emerge as time goes by.In the second half of the steel price probability is wide shock, more structural, band opportunities, rather than directional, trend opportunities.