The north is strong and the south is weak. Will the south be strong this year?

This year, under the disturbance of Tangshan production limit and emission reduction news, the price increase degree in the north is always higher than that in the south. The main reason is the result of Tangshan billet's strong pull up. Up to now, the price difference in Nanjing and Shenyang is -30 yuan/ton.Namely Shenyang price is higher than nanjing 30 yuan/ton.

The billet price expatiation

Tangshan region in strict limit production under the influence of routinization, presents the explosive line billet prices, inventory present bluff fell, tangshan crude steel output of 150 million tons last year, about 13% of China's crude steel production, but since this year, under the background of carbon up to the peak, environmental protection to leak into the normalized, the total output of impact 28 million tons, which affect the rebar production 4.7 million tons.Due to the shortage of billet, the decrease of the production of finished timber and the shortage of stock, the stock pressure in the north is always far less than that in the south, and the billet resources in the surrounding areas of Tangshan are frequently transferred, while the demand in the northern market still falls short of the demand.

North strong south weak analysis

Into the gold, silver and silver seasons, the north price is higher than the south, the root of the problem is the result of the dual role of inventory and demand, demand in the north started in time, inventory is lower than the south, and the total steel production in the north is expected to decline.Reach peak after two sessions, carbon, carbon neutral, and efforts to continuously strengthen the efforts in tangshan production limit production speed is domestic first no one dare say that the second, and the south in the rhythm of the first had winter has been relatively cautious fall prevention, careful operation, the steel plant maintenance is also far less than the north, the magnitude of the leak, factory library transfer club library also fast, the agent plan quantity under the pressure, reduced inventory relief funds.

Together, small make up that, in 2021 in the second half of the domestic steel market will be in a strong inflation expectations, the strict environmental protection under the logic of their production run, even north south materials are possible, but at the same time, it will be subject to reduced the cost of the raw ore and downstream of the high tolerance, so the second half of the policy tightening is a big trend, southern prices it is difficult to have a big improvement, the year the price is lower than the north should be a big probability event.